05S - DAVID 強弩之末

本帖最後由 methk 於 2009-12-26 17:40 編輯

由於原本在大陸主站已為05sS開帖，為了方便日後數據整合處理，本帖只作記錄及分析，首樓沒有根據論壇規範格式。

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FINAL WARNING

WTXS32 PGTW 252100

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 015//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 015

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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WARNING POSITION:

251800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 71.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 71.9E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z --- 15.1S 71.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

261800Z --- 15.9S 70.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

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REMARKS:

252100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 71.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM

SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

AND A PARTIAL 251507Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 60 NM NORTH OF ISOLATED

BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS LIMITED

CONVECTIVE BANDING. BOTH THE 251302Z TRMM WIND PRODUCT AND THE

250421Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER

SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALONG WITH DVORAK

ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY

TRACKING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT

BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE (STR) SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TRACKING

SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE AND

IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 35 KNOT INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE

NEXT TWO DAYS. REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAU 72, AS SEVERAL

MODELS INDICATE, DUE TO IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET.//

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